The DIY Completion Probability looks at one specific question inside sunk-cost psychology and creative motivation: what do your the dynamics at play actually add up to? Instead of a vague feeling, it converts the everyday signals you already notice — skill match (can you still do this?), sentimental attachment, money invested, storage footprint — into a single score you can track, compare and act on.
The model is built on sunk-cost dynamics, the Zeigarnik effect and clutter psychology, the same foundation as our flagship project calculator. Each input is weighted by how strongly that factor predicts real outcomes in the research; the formula and every weight are published below, so you can see exactly why your score is what it is — and argue with it if you like.
Adjust the sliders to match your situation honestly and the score updates live, along with the strongest factors pushing it up or down. Like everything on Quirkulator, the computation runs entirely in your browser: nothing you enter is ever transmitted or stored.
The formula
w1·skill fit- Skill match (can you still do this?) (weight -0.6)
w2·sentiment- Sentimental attachment (weight -0.3)
w3·sunk- Money invested (weight +0.7)
w4·space- Storage footprint — 0 = a drawer, 10 = a room (weight +0.7)
w5·dormant- Months since last worked on (weight +1.1)
σ, μ- Sigmoid squash to 0–100, centered on typical values
How it works, step by step
- Rate each input honestly — the DIY Completion Probability score is only as good as your self-assessment.
- Watch the live score and note which factor the result panel names as your strongest driver.
- Read your band below — each range comes with a concrete recommended next step.
- Change one input to simulate a change in behavior and see how much the score moves — that sensitivity is the real insight.
- Re-take the assessment after a few weeks; trends across readings mean far more than any single score.
Worked examples
A low-signal scenario
With every input set well below typical — the quiet version of this situation — the model returns 41, landing in the “Simmering” band. This is a paused project, not an abandoned one. It fits your energy budget and clutter tolerance; no action or guilt is owed.
A high-signal scenario
Push the main drivers well above typical and the score rises to 47 — the “Simmering” band. The project functions as a monument to a former plan. Release it formally — photograph, thank, rehome — and reclaim both the space and the mental rent.
How to read your score
Frequently asked questions
What does the DIY Completion Probability actually tell me?
Where this project sits on the spectrum from healthy pause to guilt monument — by weighing sunk cost, dormancy and visibility against your real capacity to finish. The point is a decision, not a shame score.
How can I restart a long-dormant project?
Shrink the restart: one 20-minute session with zero completion ambition. Momentum research is unanimous that starting tiny beats planning big — and the model’s dormancy weight drops quickly once work resumes.
Why do unfinished projects generate guilt at all?
Two well-studied effects compound: sunk-cost aversion (quitting feels like losing the money again) and the Zeigarnik effect (open tasks stay mentally active). Physical visibility multiplies both — the project literally watches you.
What is “formal forgiveness” of a project?
A deliberate retirement ritual: photograph it, note what it taught you, rehome the materials. It converts an open loop into a closed story, which is what the guilt was actually about.
Should I finish it or let it go?
The model’s verdict logic: strong progress plus available energy says finish; long dormancy plus low progress says release. Both outcomes close the loop — research on task abandonment shows deliberate release relieves nearly as much tension as completion.
Is my information saved?
No — everything computes locally in your browser and vanishes when you leave.