The draft completion score here is built from 5 things you already notice: age of the project/idea, plot clarity in your head, words written so far and perfectionism while drafting. Each is entered on its own scale, and the model does the weighting. The input that moves the result most is words done, so if you are unsure about one figure, that is the one worth getting right.
Anything under 25 reads as the settled case; the top band, indefinite deferral, begins where the pattern is consistent rather than occasional. The published weights are the whole model: words done at -0.8 and perfectionism at +0.8. They are shown in the table below rather than hidden, so you can disagree with a specific number instead of the result as a whole. The model is a weighted sum passed through a sigmoid, which is what keeps the result inside 0–100 no matter how extreme one input gets. Idea age, perfectionism and target push the number up; clarity and words done pull it down.
Treat the number as a position on a scale rather than a quantity. Where it sits among the 4 bands is the part that should influence a decision. Changing one input at a time is worth more than the first result: it shows you which factor your situation is actually sensitive to. It is a model built on self-reported inputs, so it inherits whatever bias is in your own estimates, and it describes a pattern rather than predicting an outcome. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere or stored.
The formula
w1·idea age- Age of the project/idea (weight +0.5)
w2·clarity- Plot clarity in your head (weight -0.6)
w3·words done- Words written so far (weight -0.8)
w4·perfectionism- Perfectionism while drafting — 0 = vomit draft, 10 = polish every sentence (weight +0.8)
w5·target- Target length (weight +0.3)
σ, μ- Sigmoid squash to 0–100, centered on typical values
How it works, step by step
- Rate each input honestly — the Draft Completion score is only as good as your self-assessment.
- Watch the live score and note which factor the result panel names as your strongest driver.
- Read your band below — each range comes with a concrete recommended next step.
- Change one input to simulate a change in behavior and see how much the score moves — that sensitivity is the real insight.
- Re-take the assessment after a few weeks; trends across readings mean far more than any single score.
Worked examples
A low-signal scenario
With every input set well below typical — the quiet version of this situation — the model returns 30, landing in the “Steady progress” band. Time budget, consistency and clarity all point the same direction: this project finishes on roughly the timeline shown. Protect the routine that is working.
A high-signal scenario
Push the main drivers well above typical and the score rises to 52 — the “Stalling” band. By the current numbers this finishes never — which is a finding, not a failure. Either restructure around a tiny sustainable habit, or formally shelve it and reclaim the mental rent. Both are wins.
How to read your score
Frequently asked questions
What does the Draft Completion Calculator tell me?
Where your project sits between healthy momentum and indefinite deferral — weighing available time, session consistency, drafting perfectionism and accountability against the project’s scope and age.
Is my project idea safe here?
The calculator never sees it — you enter numbers only, and everything computes locally in your browser.
Should I outline or discover as I write?
The model is agnostic between methods but rewards plot clarity however achieved. If your clarity slider is low and progress is stalled, one weekend of outlining typically unblocks more than a month of willpower.
How many words per hour do writers actually produce?
First-draft speeds of 300–600 words per focused hour are typical; the 2,000-word hours of legend are outliers or rewritten later. Realistic speed × your actual weekly minutes gives the honest timeline this calculator uses.
Is perfectionism really the enemy of finishing?
During drafting, measurably yes — editing while writing is the most common stall pattern in completion research. Drafting and revising use different cognitive modes; the model rewards separating them.
Is it okay to formally abandon a book project?
Completely. Deliberate release closes the cognitive loop nearly as well as completion. The tragedy is not the unwritten book; it is the decade of mental rent paid on an unmade decision.