Ghosting — the abrupt, unexplained termination of contact — has become the defining failure mode of digital friendship. Psychologists link the behavior to conflict-avoidance mechanisms in the amygdala and reduced empathic mirroring; in plain terms, the ghost finds silence cheaper than an awkward conversation.
This calculator models your situation using the six components of the Shannon-Weaver communication model: sender, message, channel, noise, receiver and feedback. Channel noise (ambiguous texts), your friend’s conflict-avoidance tendency, shared social density, and recent life transitions each shift the probability that silence is intentional rather than circumstantial.
You get two outputs: a Ghosting Probability score from 0–100, and a projected recovery timeline if reconnection is still viable. Neither is a verdict on you as a person — friendships end for structural reasons far more often than personal ones.
The formula
N_noise- Channel noise — how ambiguous and text-only your communication is (0–10)
C_avoid- The friend’s conflict-avoidance rating (0–10)
T_transition- Life-transition impact — new job, move, new baby; absorbs silence rather than adding to it (0–10)
G_gap- Current reply gap versus your historical normal (ratio)
D_social- Social network density — mutual friends and overlap (0–10)
F_f2f- Historical frequency of face-to-face contact (0–10)
How it works, step by step
- Count the days since their last substantive reply and divide by your usual reply gap — that ratio is your strongest signal.
- Rate their conflict-avoidance honestly: do they dodge hard conversations with everyone, or just you?
- Score your mutual-friend overlap — dense shared networks make true ghosting socially expensive and thus less likely.
- Factor in life transitions on their side; a new job or newborn explains silence better than malice.
- Read the probability band and the recovery timeline, then decide whether one low-pressure message is worth sending.
Worked examples
The post-trip fade
Maya and her college friend traveled together in March; texts went from daily to nothing in six weeks. Days silent: 21, normal gap: 1 day (ratio 21×), conflict-avoidance 8/10, mutual friends 2/10. Result: 87% — Ghosted band. The trip-stress modifier is real: shared close quarters accelerate latent friction.
The new-parent pause
Dev’s best friend had a baby in May. Days silent: 30 but transition score 10/10, face-to-face history 9/10, dense mutual network 8/10. Result: 29% — Drifting. High life-transition scores absorb most of the silence; the model recommends patience plus one concrete, undemanding check-in.
How to read your score
Frequently asked questions
Is this calculator scientifically accurate?
It is a structured estimate, not a diagnosis. The weights are modeled on communication-theory variables (Shannon-Weaver noise, conflict-avoidance research) rather than a clinical dataset — no ghosting calculator can read minds. Use it to organize your thinking, not to prosecute a friend.
What counts as ghosting versus just being busy?
The key variable is the reply-gap ratio: days of silence divided by your historical normal gap. Busy people stretch to 3–5× their normal gap; ghosting typically shows 10× or more combined with read-but-unanswered messages.
Should I confront someone the calculator says is ghosting me?
Confrontation usually backfires with conflict-avoidant people — it confirms their fear that engaging you is costly. One warm, specific, zero-guilt message ("thinking of you, no need to reply") maximizes return probability.
How long does friendship recovery actually take?
When reconnection happens, research on dormant ties suggests re-activation is fastest with a concrete plan attached. Our recovery estimate scales with the silence duration and probability band — typically 2 to 12 weeks.
Why do close friends ghost more painfully but less often?
Dense mutual networks make ghosting socially expensive — the ghost still has to face shared friends. That is why the calculator subtracts social density from the probability.
Does the calculator store my answers?
No. All computation runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent to our servers.