The Ghosting Probability Calculator looks at one specific question inside relational dynamics and digital communication: what do your sudden silence actually add up to? Instead of a vague feeling, it converts the everyday signals you already notice — years of friendship, current reply gap vs. normal, messages exchanged per week, close mutual friends — into a single score you can track, compare and act on.
The model is built on the Shannon-Weaver communication model, reply-latency analysis and social-network density research, the same foundation as our flagship friendship calculator. Each input is weighted by how strongly that factor predicts real outcomes in the research; the formula and every weight are published below, so you can see exactly why your score is what it is — and argue with it if you like.
Adjust the sliders to match your situation honestly and the score updates live, along with the strongest factors pushing it up or down. Like everything on Quirkulator, the computation runs entirely in your browser: nothing you enter is ever transmitted or stored.
The formula
w1·years- Years of friendship (weight -0.5)
w2·reply gap- Current reply gap vs. normal — 0 = replies as always, 10 = radio silence (weight +1.3)
w3·msg freq- Messages exchanged per week (weight -0.6)
w4·mutuals- Close mutual friends (weight -0.6)
w5·effort balance- Effort balance — 0 = they do everything, 10 = you do everything (weight +0.7)
σ, μ- Sigmoid squash to 0–100, centered on typical values
How it works, step by step
- Rate each input honestly — the Ghosting Probability score is only as good as your self-assessment.
- Watch the live score and note which factor the result panel names as your strongest driver.
- Read your band below — each range comes with a concrete recommended next step.
- Change one input to simulate a change in behavior and see how much the score moves — that sensitivity is the real insight.
- Re-take the assessment after a few weeks; trends across readings mean far more than any single score.
Worked examples
A low-signal scenario
With every input set well below typical — the quiet version of this situation — the model returns 25, landing in the “Solid ground” band. Signals are healthy: reciprocity is intact and the connection is being actively maintained from both sides. Keep doing what you are doing.
A high-signal scenario
Push the main drivers well above typical and the score rises to 56 — the “Strained” band. The pattern matches late-stage drift or soft ghosting. Send one warm, zero-guilt message if you want closure or revival; then redirect energy toward friendships that answer.
How to read your score
Frequently asked questions
Should I confront my friend about a bad score?
Lead with curiosity, not the number. A low-pressure, specific invitation ("coffee Thursday?") produces more diagnostic information than any conversation about the friendship itself — avoidant people answer plans faster than feelings.
What is a healthy score on the Ghosting Probability Calculator?
Most balanced friendships land in the lower half of the scale. Scores drift upward when reciprocity breaks: one person initiating everything, reply gaps stretching, plans repeatedly cancelled. A single high reading after a busy month means little; a rising trend over several months means a lot.
How accurate is the Ghosting Probability Calculator?
It is a structured self-assessment, not a clinical instrument. The weights are modeled on communication research — reply latency, reciprocity and network density are genuinely predictive signals — but no calculator can observe a friendship from inside. Use the score to organize your thinking, then verify against reality.
How often should I re-check this score?
Monthly is plenty. Friendship signals are noisy week to week — travel, deadlines and family events all masquerade as distance. Trends across two or three readings are far more meaningful than any single result.
Can one conversation change my result?
Yes — several inputs (reply gap, conversation depth, initiation balance) respond immediately to a single good exchange. That sensitivity is deliberate: friendships turn on small consistent behaviors, and the calculator is designed to reward them instantly.
Is my data stored anywhere?
No. Every calculation runs in your browser via client-side JavaScript. Nothing you enter is transmitted, logged, or stored.